Michael Story

When?
Wednesday, August 1 2018 at 7:30PM

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Where?

108 St Aldate's
City Centre
Oxford
OX1 1BU

Who?
Michael Story

What's the talk about?

Since 2011, a team of 150 civilians has been predicting the future more accurately than US intelligence agencies. Formed under the auspices of IARPA (the US Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, informally known as 'DARPA for spies'), the Good Judgement Projects’s 'Superforecaster' teams have been forecasting the specifics of topics as varied as North Korean missile programmes, the movement of Russian troops and the career progression of Robert Mugabe, achieving a 50% lower error rate than the previous state of the art.

This talk will cover who makes these forecasts, how they are doing it, and some techniques shown to make nearly anyone more accurate when predicting the future.

Michael Story is a Director and Superforecaster with Good Judgement, Inc

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